Below is a thoughtful, well researched, and near complete, update on the change in balance of power in the western Pacific. I highly recommend it to anyone interested in understanding China's new capabilities to achieve strategic success against the US Navy.
Near complete. Here's three items I would recommend be highlighted in any update to the brief by COL MacGregor:
1. The Chinese WILL use battlefield nuclear weapons against high value US warships in a Taiwan/mainland scenario. Their declared 'no first use' policy pointedly allows for use in conflicts involving their homeland ... which they have forever maintained, Taiwan is. The Chinese anti-carrier plan has been developed from the old Soviet Navy plan. Both rely on calculations of likelihood of success per missile vs US defensive systems. The Soviet plan, at a minimum, called for 2 nuclear warheads per carrier. Given the vageries of actual missile to steel impact on a maneuvering ship, running at 30mph, which is only 250 foot wide, it is a SOLID assumption the anti-ship ballistic missiles, will, at least in part, be armed with airburst nuclear weapons.
2. It has been opinion of the Naval War College since 2009 that:
"Washington seemingly has little choice but to adopt a cautious strategy concerning the Taiwan issue and face the uncomfortable truth that it cannot feasibly defend Taiwan militarily over the long term." https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-red-books/7/
This is particularly true with, as the reference explains, the anticipated employment of mines by the PLA Navy - including from non-traditional vessels. If you haven't noticed - we suck at mine warfare. Even Iraq could counter a large amphibious landing by the Marines with some shallow water mines - and China took note.
3. The Chinese penetration of our most secure military research labs in the 90s was described as "total". Today's systems were being birthed in concept then. Israel, our 'special friend', with whom we share almost every critical high tech military system, or has stolen everything else through esponage, has for decades been trafficking our most important military secrets to China (1). Chinese American and Chinese nationals are scattered throughout our R+D institutions and many have been discovered to be spys - even by our inept counterintelligence 'professionals'. DC is shot through with spys - spys with direct access to members congress intelligence oversight committees. Feinsteins 'driver', Swalwell's pelvic associate were only the too obvious ones - and note - there's been no real consequence to either compromised Democrat.
Gee, why does the PLA Navy obsess on studying the Battle of Midway - the battle which determined the fate of Japan in WWII (and was the consequence of the US breaking the Japanese communicaitons codes)?
The consequences of these realities are very rarely contemplated. From the strategic secrets down to the war fighting tactical ones. At the least the integrity of our secure communications, and the reliability of our anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile jammers, should be considered as degraded at best.
But this is not done.
And meanwhile we have a Commander in Chief who wants ... Battleships.
May God help us.
1. Example -https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-16292244. See more at -some-notes-on-our-special-friend-israel.html
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