Self Deluded

 

There is a lot of chatter on how the US Navy's aircraft carriers can best support defending Taiwan from PRC.  It's nearly as endless as the '.45 vs 9mm' debates - with one significant difference.  The proponents of American carriers seem unable to accept a simple reality, that being, a substantial number of China's anti-ship ballistic missiles launched against a US aircraft carrier will have nuclear warheads.  Below is my contribution to one of these conversations ... held at"

https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/running-out-of-sm-3-at-sea utm_campaign=reaction&utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack&utm_content=post

"Very good, and thought provoking article! I, however, respectfully take issue with the official presumption that PLARF ASBMs are armed with conventional warheads. 

 China has minutely studied the Soviet/Russian anti-carrier warfare system and largely adopted it - with ASBMs substituted for TU-22s. What we know about 'correlation of forces' (COF) calculations for regimental, and multi regimental strikes, with or without substantial SSMs in the mix, will probably be relevant. Their 'no first use' nuke policy glaringly allows for nukes to defend Chinese territory - which is what they say Taiwan is. China's COF calculations for number of hits likely given air defenses (in this case to include ABMs), and likelihood of a hit on a maneuvering spot in the water no more than 250 ft wide, going 30 mph, most probably resemble the old Soviet strike package calculations. 

Bottom line - (and I always love your arcane BSG allusions) China will be nuking the battle group day one. 

 Bet on it. 

They do not see the world through your eyes. Read Unrestricted Warfare folks. They have a 'you did it to Asians first' baked into their war plans. 

Two other BIG considerations, PLA-N focus on studying Battle of Midway (decisive element - communications intelligence), and their past, and current real time observations of Russian EW. A high burst nuke to start the day will complicate things for us a lot more then for them. These 'seasonings' will be used to prepare the theater before and during. 

Still think the CV's are applicable to the problem?"