Thursday, December 24, 2020

Trolling for trouble

I've mentioned things in the middle east a few times of late.   Recent headlines make it second only to the election steal and Chicom espionage (which may, in large part, be one in the same story) for consideration.

Old salts will remember the disastrous results of putting too many US assets in the Persian Gulf with an eye towards influencing Iran.

As our President's attention is desperately needed inside the beltway, adventurism in that god forsaken pond seems ill advised and most certainly ill timed.  

None the less, it appears deep state wants to troll for trouble there even while incompetent at addressing sedition and PRC espionage and sabotage at home.  Better profit margin?

Or ill advised quid pro quo for wonder kid's treaties?

Either way,  it's a crap place to sail around in if the Iranians don't want you there.  Oil independent, there's no pressing national security interest for the US to be poking the bear.  

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/navy-has-learned-hard-way-iran%E2%80%99s-naval-mines-are-no-small-threat-174310

And - operating indistinguishable platforms from likely combatants is risking becoming one yourself.  Iranian ASW being what it is, they won't discriminate a nuclear powered American sub from a conventionally powered - but nuclear armed - Israeli sub.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-israel-fakhrizadeh-nuclear-assassination/2020/12/23/fca9e0fe-44e8-11eb-ac2a-3ac0f2b8ceeb_story.html

Shallow, constrained waters.  

Dotted with legacy mines.

Damm strange place to be sending our largest submarine.  Better suited to an old UK O boat than a refurbished boomer.  Remember, not only is it shallow, big tankers can sit 100 foot deep when full laden with crude.


 

Put enough men, sharp and explosive things, and mendacious allies, all in proximity with sharia belivin' loons and there's a real good chance things will lead to shootin'.  

But, maybe that's deep state's intent?  

We've played that game before.

And, as I well remember, it turned out ugly.


 

 (propaganda triumph for the mullahs, here's how they recall it https://english.khamenei.ir/news/2171/Legion-of-Merit-awarded-to-the-one-who-killed-290-passengers )

PS - it's been a slow burn all year.  Lost in the fear porn of  WuFlu (necessary for the vote by mail scam) was this https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32600/warning-to-iran-ac-130w-gunship-practices-slaying-boats-with-u-s-navy-in-the-persian-gulf  

Maybe after a rush of orders for Lockheed, Raytheon and friends,deep state wants Biden to come as the great peacemaker?  Such an apologetic figure could recommit the US to the Iranian nuke deal Obama was so proud of. 

Update - evening of 24 Dec Some words on the matter of Israel and Iran.  How much is to be believed?

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israel-using-gen-milley-pass-messages-biden-iran

UPDATE - dunno why but this is one sign there is some adult supervision in/of DOD.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pentagon-orders-aircraft-carrier-out-gulf-possible-iran-de-escalation

In - likely - unrelated reporting ...

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/12/31/Trump-to-return-to-White-House-early-from-Mar-a-Lago-vacation/8371609403277/


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