Note - I intend these posts as recreation for me, therapy in a way of making me organize thoughts on complex issues. My background in such matters as this is greatly dated (1), but I've stayed reasonably current via 'open source' materials. Events over the last few days has made it clear, even to Tucker Carlson (2), that the OBiden regime is playing a very dangerous game with a very serious opponent. The fallout (literally) may be much worse than they expect.
It's been 77 years since a nation used nuclear weapons to conclude a war. Perhaps Vlad – and Xi – think that is long enough.
Calculations.
Correlation of forces.
The Soviet Military was very mechanical about combat planning. For example, an American carrier was appropriately acknowledged as a robust target. The ship's compartmentalization and damage control capability (in Reagan's Navy, not so much now (3)) was unmatched by any other class ship, in any other navy. Defensively the capability of the (now long retired) F-14 Tomcat/AIM-54 and E-3C to provide air defense beyond the AEGIS SM-2 bubble about the carrier, as well as the number of AEGIS ships in the carrier's escort group, would all be factored. An end calculus would provide the number of missiles – and number of nuclear warheads within the missile groups – necessary to be employed either by submarines, or long range strike aircraft, or jointly to eliminate the carrier. The term for this calculus was 'correlation of forces'.
It appears Putin has made a correlation of forces calculation regarding the use of a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
He may have calculated Ukrainian defenses against one of his many nuclear strike systems. They have none. Ukraine and NATO have no defensive capabilities to stop a nuclear weapon being delivered by, for example, a hypersonic missile launched from a MIG-31 at high altitude within Russia, or a missile launched from a submarine in the Mediterranean or Black Sea.
He may have calculated the odds of a decrepit Biden actually retaliating - and thus earn a strike on American cities – like Soros's San Francisco, Trump's New York, Obama's Chicago. You see, all of our cities are undefended, unlike Moscow.
Further, he would have calculated the reliability of 'Deep State' actually following a Presidential order to launch a nuclear strike on Russia in response to a single small or medium size nuclear weapon detonating over Ukraine. This is a new element and here Milley's treasonous behavior under Trump - making personal negotiations with PRC undercutting the credibility of the nation's deterrence forces - has had real consequences in a very deadly calculus.
Thus the 'correlation of forces' favors use of a nuke by Vlad – and will only get better with continuing developments. ( https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf )
Cost benefit calculations.
Operational/strategic. The effect of a ~250KT warhead vaporizing a military/societal target in eastern Ukraine would be decisive on a war which has been dragging on in Ukraine. The absurd, authoritarian comic's ability to hold onto power - and keep a country committed to a, now devastating, war, one instigated by team Davos no less (4) - is minimal. Vlad can dictate his terms to a terrified Ukraine and NATO.
Strategic. Use of even one nuclear weapon by Russia – which, to remind, the US used twice - will reset the apparent balance of power back to what it has, always really, been. Russia's nuclear stockpile will ensures it's primacy as one of the world's three 'superpowers'. Xi , who may be urging such action by Putin, even offering economic incentives, obtains a euro face on the threshold being broken. Threshold thus lowered, Xi can now credibly threaten nuke strikes against US carriers when they 'reclaim' Taiwan. This is important tactically to Xi's navy as it's dubious their anti-ship ballistic missiles are armed with conventional warheads and now they now become real threats.
Jointly, China and Russia benefit from the power of the Davos megalomaniacs evaporating in the new reality.
US's position, which otherwise would be at least coequal with Russia and China is vastly diminished because of it's demonstrated inability to function effectively militarily.
Economic. I've no experience in this sphere but China and Russia's economies are controlled, and their populations much more effectively managed than, despite Deep State's machinations to date, nations in the west. Both can manage independent of any 'western' (Davos and Deep State actually – anyone ever ask you?) sanctions.
Prediction.
Having lost tens of thousands of troops in a war incited by Davos and the OBiden administration, unless there is a cease fire, or some significant change in political leadership in the west or Russia, Vlad will likely use at least one nuclear weapon in Ukraine. Timing is likely to be when sufficient, even marginally combat effective forces (adequate for occupation duties) become available for the predominantly ethnically Russian sections of western Ukraine. The target will likely be in eastern Ukraine and may be a military depot with heavy US/UK military advisor population and US provided equipment, or/and one significantly associated with the Azov Nazis whose terrorism of ethnically Russian citizens in western Ukraine was used by Soros to prepare the environment for the conflict.
1. https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2022/04/the-short-bus-team-tries-brinkmanship.html
2. https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2022/05/question-and-answer.html and https://tuckercarlson.com/tucker-we-are-the-closest-weve-ever-been-to-nuclear-conflict-in-history/
3. https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2022/05/todays-navy.html
UPDATE: 9/24/22 An alternative view - https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/09/why_russia_wont_use_nuclear_weapons_in_ukraine.html The author says "Using nuclear weapons would likely be Putin’s last act. Russia has a history of eliminating those who interfere with Russia’s real priorities" my point being, what if it is accepted as being in Russia's best interest to do so?
UPDATE: 9/24/22: Perhaps I should have included Xi in the list ... "unless there is a cease fire, or some significant change in political leadership in the west or Russia,"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygtA_hJLIBs
UPDATE: 9/26/22 Now aren't you glad the US didn't waste money on missile defense? Or have multiple rods from god in orbit? All that money on 'green' and 'assistance' (here and abroad) was so much more important.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/sullivan-warns-russia-catastrophic-consequences-1st-public-response-putins-nuclear
