Over the last month or so it has been interesting for this pensioner living in central Texas to observe distant events in the military/industrial and global military spheres.
The Trump administration and congress, instead of taking the chainsaw to the Pentagon's budget has added to it. Drastic cuts (1) are desperately needed both for our national defense and economic survival. Paradoxically, the same administration demonstrated astonishing good sense and stopped the Houthi project before it became the 'stupid little war' - with Iran no less - that Israel, the Deep State, and the whores in congress paid by the MIC (military industrial complex), so dearly wanted.
So ... call me confused.
On the military tech front I waited for some of the more astute commentators to divine on the possible things learned from the Pakistani v. Indian air battle.
Examples:
(ignore the puppet, it's pretty good analysis) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHY8t_SABC8
(and, while deliberately underestimating how big a hand our 'special friend' provided Communist China) https://www.twz.com/air/chinas-j-10c-fighter-separating-myth-from-reality
My $.02 ...
First, I've never understood the Indian/Pakistani thing at all. The relationship looks simultaneously to be both close and murderous Example - https://youtu.be/RXoWNe_HAak
As for platforms, I've written a lot on the Israelis trafficking in valuable US military secrets to China in the past. The J-10C is a long way from the Lavi - but, admit it, that is where it started (2). A joint US Israeli fighter program, the design of which was provided to the PRC by our 'special friend'. Is the J-10 a better jet than the Rafale?
It damm sure ain't as pretty, for what that's worth. And, if Dassault is the same company it was in the '80s I'd bet there's some French pilots already sitting in Indian ready rooms itching for a rematch.
But, this wasn't a jet vs jet match up akin to the Spitfire vs ME-109 or even F-8 vs Mig-19 match ups of the past. As neither side crossed it's border and engaged in eyeball to eyeball dogfighting , this was a weapons system match up and in this case the electronics in the J-10C and the Chinese air-to-air missiles bested the French offering.
So ... call me surprised - and alarmed. The Chinese have produced, and largely on their own, competent, very high technology weapons. Worse, apparently western electronic warfare is behind on threat detection and electronic countermeasures at least as far as the J-10C/PL-15 is concerned. I've warned this was coming (3). Now it's here (or at least appears to be based on the best kind of intel on this stuff there is, i.e. actual combat).
Fall out?
Economic - if China gains market share in military exports that could really impact our economy:
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2025/03/13/us-top-weapons-exports-china-russia/
Political/Military - Trump is, appropriately in my estimation, engaging in the PRC in war by other means, "Unrestricted Warfare" in the Chinese lexicon, and pressuring them with tariffs (4). If the CCP and Xi personally feel this is an existential threat AND feel the demonstration of superiority of their state of the art weapons (however limited the sample) is conclusive, they may see a Taiwan military campaign as lower risk than before.
Interesting times indeed.
1. https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2025/05/a-tiny-start.html
2. https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2020/08/with-friends-like-these.html
3. https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2020/08/and-now-for-something-little-different.html (deficient in electronic warfare and countermeasures)
4. https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2025/05/xi-heading-for-ash-heap.html
UPDATE: 5/18/25 - call me Nostradamus ... https://breakingdefense.com/2025/05/us-policymakers-beware-egypts-relationship-with-china-is-preparing-for-takeoff/
I can't say that being a salesman for Lockheed, Raytheon, and ATK is a primary mission for our SECDEF. Regardless, it would be easier if our stuff was clearly better and competitively priced. Oh, what a favor our 'special friend' did when they sold the LAVI design to Communist China ...
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