Risk

 

First, I'd like readers to review the assessment of the situation I did in July 2023..

Key judgement:

"The level of antipathy between Iran and Israel is unmatched in the world.  Israel already has a substantial nuclear strike capability, Iran has already participated in nuclear tests in North Korea, and may, in fact, own some nuclear bombs manufactured, and held by, the North Koreans.   A traditional plague, or risky 'decapitating strike' against Iran by Israel using nuclear or conventional weapons may already be out of the question.  Is a solution to this conundrum what planet Israel seeks from planet China?    Simultaneously, China wants oil from Iran, but technology and secrets from Israel.  Iran wants trade with China but assistance with nuclear weapons, if not the weapons themselves, from North Korea.  North Korea wants good relations with China foremost, but needs trade beyond China - it's only real commercial partner." 

 https://nexttobagend.blogspot.com/2023/07/reality-may-resemble-really-good-fiction.html

Right now I'm believing Bibi launched his attack not based on some intel that Iran was about to achieve a 'breakthrough' in their (domestic) nuclear weapons program.   The primary motivator was his assessment that the influence of the Israeli lobby, and his collaborators within the US Deep State, was disappearing.  If he was to have any chance of getting America directly involved in killing Iranians for him it was better now than later.

The intelligence assessment provided to congress by Tulsi is in stark contrast to Bibi's propaganda which, unfortunately, Trump is parroting ( https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/video/trump-gabbard-iran-nuclear-weapons-collins-digvid ).  Neither adequately reflects reality.

End of game, the most likely winner is China.  Reconstruction of Iran by China  (who else?) will greatly improve their relations with an oil rich nation - the piece they want most. If they are seen as munificently preventing the delivery of nukes to Iran by North Korea they will keep Israel on leash as a reliable source of critical US military technology secrets and shared dirt on US pols (thanks Epstein and friends).     

If indeed a couple of Iranian paid for nukes leak out of North Korea, some for missiles to strike Israel, some on tuna boats bound for US ports ...

China win again.  Israel was a throw away compared with the damage that would do to the US.

Hmmm ... did Xi play Bibi - perhaps some fake 'intel' which precipitated this?  

And, hey, anyone got a clue what those ten thousand or more military age chinamen Biden (Obama) let cross our border are up to?  Anybody?

 

 " nothing is beyond Israel or China.  NOTHING." - July '23 sitrep.

 

UPDATE: Same day - one cargo flight from North Korea away from disaster.    https://www.yahoo.com/news/china-sends-mystery-transport-planes-170428323.html